The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) has predicted a 35% fall in UK GDP in the second quarter of this year.
Experts from the independent group have predicted that these figures will happen if the current lockdown conditions remain in place for a period of three months, followed by an additional three months of partially lifted restrictions.
It has also been predicted that the UK could see a rise of unemployment up to 10% of the working population, which is roughly 2,000,000 people. This number will then decline later in the year.
The UK’s lockdown was initially put in place for a period of three weeks, however, on Monday the government confirmed that they would be extending the current measures to reduce the spread of coronavirus.
The OBR’s predictions have been calculated by looking at the Resolution Foundation’s survey of previous pandemics, and the impact they have had on the economy. This report states that 80-90% of the short-term economic impact of a pandemic occurs as a result of the social measures to reduce the spread of the virus, rather than people falling ill.
However, this report also adds that the impact of those falling ill from the virus would be much greater if these measures and restrictions were not in place.
The current social distancing restrictions in the UK mean that people should not leave their homes unless it is for daily exercise, to buy essential supplies, or if they are a key worker.
