As the government’s chief medical officer states that the UK may need to maintain social distancing until at least the end of the year, what does this mean for the general population and how will this work in practise? Tara Pilkington explores.
Even though it has been reported that the UK has reached the peak of the current epidemic, the government’s chief medical advisor has said that social distancing measures are will be needed until at least the end of the year in order to prevent a potential second wave of coronavirus infections.
Professor Chris Whitty, the UK’s most senior medic, has said that it is very important to be realistic that “highly disruptive” social distancing would need to be in place for “really quite a long period of time”.
He also added that in the long run, the exit is going to be down to one of two things, either a vaccine or highly effective drugs that will stop people dying of the disease even if they catch it or one that can prevent the disease in vulnerable people.
He commented: “Until we have those – and the probability of having those any time in the next calendar year are incredibly small, and I think we should be realistic about that – we’re going to have to rely on other social measures, which of course are very socially disruptive as everyone is finding at the moment.”
This then leads to a question of what a potential exit strategy for the UK would look like and how it could be implemented. While ministers and their medical advisors aren’t being drawn on a strategy yet, discussions are currently underway in Whitehall exploring a potential exit strategy from the UK lockdown and how a gradual return to work could soften the economic blow while avoiding a second surge of coronavirus outbreaks.
From releasing young people first to following a regional approach, there are several options available for how the UK may gradually lift the current coronavirus lockdown.
Reopening schools:
While keeping schools closed has undoubtedly helped to slow down the spread of coronavirus, it has also had a significant impact on economic activity as working parents need to take time off work for childcare and homeschooling.
Instead of simply reopening schools, which runs the risk of creating a second surge of outbreaks, one approach suggests that schools should stagger their opening hours, lunch and break times, keep playgrounds closed and have a shorter school week amongst other measures to ease the strain on working parents.
Currently, there is little information to guide us or infer what the best approach should be. While there is a case for opening primary schools first as it is younger children who need more continuous supervision, which keeps their parents out of work for longer, the impact on school closures has been more severe for secondary school students.
Releasing the youth:
Young people are considered to be some of the most resilient to coronavirus, and also the hardest hit financially, a ‘youth-first’ approach aims to soften the financial impact that the virus has had on their lives. Research from Warwick University estimates that by easing the restrictions on those in their 20s/30s, who no longer live with their parents, could allow 4.2 million people to return to work.
The authors of the report have said; “A young workforce release of this kind would lead to substantial economic and societal benefits without enormous health costs to the country.” If this approach went ahead, other groups could slowly be reintroduced to the workplace depending on their age and which sector they work in.
However, this approach should still be taken with caution, as the Warwick group have calculated that this approach could potentially lead to 630 premature deaths as young people, while resilient, still do run the risk of catching the virus.
Reopening businesses:
Again, while a gradual lifting of the current lockdown restrictions seems like the best approach for many shops and businesses and would help aid the economy, there is still a risk that this could contribute to a second wave of infections. In the UK, health officials are noting how other countries are starting to relax their lockdown rules and will be taking note.
There will still need to be strict limits on which types of shops should reopen, with clear limitations on their opening hours and numbers. Business secretary, Alok Sharma, has already provided more guidance for those working in construction and manufacturing, who has said that work could continue provided that it can be completed in line with social distancing rules wherever possible.
Regional approach:
Another option for the UK could be to take a regional approach for slowly lifting lockdown restrictions.
Dr Michael Head, a senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton, said to the Guardian that he expects to see a staggered approach to the easing of current restrictions, this is a very complex process:
“All decisions can have foreseen and unforeseen consequences… For example, we may see a regional easing of lockdown, but there’s the potential that any such announcement may see increased travel of people into and out of those areas.”
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